Gold Outlook
Gold Outlook: week of October 19, 2026
Plain-English recap. This is education, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Last week in one sentence
Spot gold opened near $4,189, traded between about $4,074 and $4,217, and finished near $4,165 — down roughly 0.5% for the week.
What moved it
- Hot US inflation (Wednesday): the CPI report came in hotter than expected. The dollar and bond yields jumped and gold fell about $60 within minutes, bottoming near $4,074.
- Rebound (Thursday–Friday): yields and the dollar eased, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh didn’t signal an October rate hike. Gold climbed back toward $4,200 but couldn’t break through.
- Rate expectations: markets still expect the Fed to hold this month, with a high chance of a hike priced in for December (CME FedWatch). Higher rates tend to weigh on gold because it pays no interest.
The bigger picture
COMEX gold futures are about 22% below their record high of $5,318 set on January 29, 2026, and down roughly 4% for the year.
Levels people are watching
| Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| $4,200–$4,217 | The ceiling gold failed at several times; last week’s high |
| $4,165 | Friday’s close |
| $4,075 | Last week’s low after the CPI drop |
Things on the calendar
Watch US economic data and any comments from Fed officials — those drove last week’s biggest moves. Expect volatility around 8:30 AM ET releases.
Gold’s average daily range last week was around $68 (about 680 pips by our convention). Size trades small and use a stop loss — try the lot size calculator.